Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007081 0.007972 0.008934 0.010051 0.011312 0.012692 0.014320
2026-02-01 0.005540 0.006738 0.008138 0.009896 0.012048 0.014600 0.017865
2026-02-08 0.004749 0.006094 0.007752 0.009951 0.012799 0.016372 0.021213
2026-02-15 0.004137 0.005543 0.007356 0.009869 0.013277 0.017755 0.024113
2026-02-22 0.003772 0.005249 0.007226 0.010076 0.014099 0.019601 0.027747
2026-03-01 0.003308 0.004757 0.006763 0.009756 0.014134 0.020338 0.029867
2026-03-08 0.002964 0.004392 0.006431 0.009571 0.014312 0.021256 0.032287
2026-03-15 0.002655 0.004045 0.006085 0.009318 0.014349 0.021943 0.034389
2026-03-22 0.002534 0.003964 0.006120 0.009633 0.015260 0.024002 0.038771
2026-03-29 0.002398 0.003845 0.006083 0.009825 0.015983 0.025815 0.042906
2026-04-05 0.002282 0.003745 0.006064 0.010037 0.016744 0.027738 0.047377
2026-04-12 0.002113 0.003545 0.005865 0.009932 0.016967 0.028782 0.050434
2026-04-19 0.001974 0.003384 0.005722 0.009916 0.017349 0.030143 0.054201
2026-04-26 0.001822 0.003190 0.005508 0.009759 0.017471 0.031064 0.057270
2026-05-03 0.001721 0.003076 0.005420 0.009814 0.017967 0.032677 0.061740
2026-05-10 0.001608 0.002931 0.005265 0.009733 0.018206 0.033834 0.065441
2026-05-17 0.001548 0.002876 0.005266 0.009937 0.018987 0.036054 0.071384
2026-05-24 0.001420 0.002686 0.005004 0.009622 0.018749 0.036313 0.073462
2026-05-31 0.001321 0.002542 0.004819 0.009439 0.018749 0.037026 0.076507
2026-06-07 0.001223 0.002392 0.004610 0.009190 0.018596 0.037417 0.078912
2026-06-14 0.001199 0.002386 0.004678 0.009500 0.019599 0.040217 0.086652
2026-06-21 0.001162 0.002351 0.004687 0.009690 0.020365 0.042586 0.093669
2026-06-28 0.001129 0.002322 0.004705 0.009898 0.021186 0.045131 0.101303